2009年1月6日火曜日

What Do SaaS Companies Have to Prepare for 2009?

SaaS市場の今後の動向について、SaaS業界への投資が多いBessemer Venturesがプレゼンを行っている。  下記のポイントが興味深い:
 
1)  SaaS業界のValuation Multiplesは相変わらずIT業界平均の2.5〜3.0を超え、はるかに大きい数字を見せている: 6.6
 
2) 一方では、SaaS業界の株価は業界全体の低迷にあわせて、一年で60%も落ちている現状がある。  事業の売り上げとキャッシュフローは非常に好調であるが、株価の低下をカバーするまでには至っていないのが現状
 
3) 5Cを狙え、というのが提案:
1: CMRR(Committed Monthly Recurring Revenue):  定額収入の確保
2: Churn:  客が他業者に乗り換えないように努力する。よく研究する事。
3: Cash:  現金をとにかく消費しない事
4: CAC(Customer Acquisition Cost): 新規顧客に対する回収計画をクリアにし、実行する。
5: CLTV(Customer Lifetime Value):  顧客のライフサイクルをよく研究し、その価値評価をよく分析する
 
特に目新しい事はかいていないが、SaaS事業の重要なキーポイントとして、CMRR(月額の定額収入)をとにかくあげる事によって、自社のキャッシュフローのコントロールを出来るようにする事が重要である、ということが印象深い。  サービス事業ならではの定額収入を基盤とした収益構造に対する着目であり、製造業と異なる考え方でこの不安定な景気を乗り越える戦略を策定する必要性を考えさせられる。 
 
 
 

A whackload of trouble. (See, I answered my own question!)

As 2008 comes to an end you should be well on your way to planning 2009. And what a year it will be! The economy is in shambles, it's getting harder to raise capital (and it was already hard!) and customers are freezing budgets. 2009 won't be the prettiest year ever.

And SaaS (Software as a Service) vendors have to be very careful in their planning and rigorous in their execution of what will most likely be some very difficult plans. Companies will have to cut somewhere, and take a hard look at each employee, business strategies, pricing, etc. Basically: Look at everything.

Mark MacLeod includes a presentation from Bessemer Ventures in a recent blog post to show you what some top-tier venture firms are looking at for SaaS businesses. I've included it below as well:

SaaS Startup Focus Points

The presentation isn't very long, but here are some highlights of critical importance for early stage SaaS vendors:

  • Valuations are dropping. The top SaaS vendors out there have lost considerable value recently; you can expect that your SaaS startup will be hit as well. Valuations for early stage companies are in the $1-$3M pre-money range, that's just the reality of the situation.
  • Growth isn't king. Cash is king, and you'll need to keep as much of it as possible, even at the expense of growth. Cut marketing spend that's not driving great ROI. Cut sales people that are not hitting their numbers. You need to get to a month-by-month cash flow positive position as quickly as possible.
  • Churn will kill you. Churn will hurt a SaaS vendor in good times; in bad times it's absolute doom. If you're not effectively renewing customers on a monthly or yearly basis you're in big, big trouble. Bessemer suggests a target under 12%. To improve your renewal rates, focus on building stronger relationships with customers. Invest in customer service, maintain an aggressive tracking policy, hold customers' hands more frequently and bend over backwards to keep customers on board. That doesn't necessarily mean slashing prices (which will kill revenue), but great customer service is critical now more than ever.
  • Stay focused on what's important. R&D is great. New features are great. More capacity in hosting or more scalability are great. But none of them will necessary improve sales (at least quickly), or minimize churn - especially for early stage SaaS providers. Take a hard look at your product roadmap and only focus on the essentials and highest value features. If you don't know what they are — ask! That's part of building good relationships with customers too.
  • Don't turtle. As much as you're looking for things to cut, and you're sitting in a dark office plowing through Excel spreadsheets and financial models, don't turtle and bury yourself in the sand. Get out there and make noise! Build up your presence in the market, especially when others are floundering and customer confidence in competitors is weakening. This is critical for SaaS startups — now is the time to build brand, differentiate clearly, generate PR and attract attention.

2009 will be a tough year.

But SaaS vendors can still survive and do exceedingly well through tough times. The key is to stay afloat, focus less on growth and more on efficiency, proper target metrics and existing customers (look at renewals and upsells!)

Revenue is critical. And generally SaaS companies are better at generating revenue than many others. At least it's a real business model. Look under every rock at your company. Evaluate and question everything. You will need to be more ruthless and aggressive at times, and more cautious at other times. Hold your cash but don't roll over and die. Focus on a couple key metrics and work on those metrics daily. And be ready when things turn around — which they always do; by staying lean, improving customer relationships and keying in on critical metrics, you'll be well positioned for much faster growth as soon as customers open up their purse strings again.